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U.S., China agree to ‘peacefully denuclearize’ Korean peninsula

Saturday, April 13th, 2013

U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry (L) looks at Chinese President Xi Jinping before their meeting at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing. (Reuters)

Al Arabiya with agencies -

During U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry visit to Beijing, the United States and China agreed on Saturday to work together to “peacefully denuclearize” the Korean peninsula.

U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry and China’s top diplomat, State Councillor Yang Jiechi, said both countries supported the goal of denuclearizing the Korean peninsula, Reuters reported.

“We are able, the United States and China, to underscore our joint commitment to the denuclearization of the Korean peninsula in a peaceful manner,” Reuters quoted Kerry as saying to reporters.

“We agreed that this is critically important for the stability of the region and indeed for the world and for all of our nonproliferation efforts,” Kerry added while standing next to Yang at a state guesthouse in western Beijing.

Before travelling to Beijing for the first time as secretary of state, Kerry had made no secret of his desire to see China take a more active stance towards North Korea, which in recent weeks has threatened nuclear war against the United States and South Korea.

“We maintain that the issue should be handled and resolved peacefully through dialogue and consultation. To properly address the Korea nuclear issue serves the common interests of all parties. It is also the shared responsibility of all parties,” Yang said.

As the North’s main trading partner, financial backer and the closest thing it has to a diplomatic ally, China has a unique ability to use its leverage against the impoverished, isolated state, Kerry said in the South Korean capital, Seoul late on Friday before leaving for Beijing.

“Mr. President, this is obviously a critical time with some very challenging issues – issues on the Korean peninsula, the challenge of Iran and nuclear weapons, Syria and the Middle East, and economies around the world that are in need of a boost,” AFP quoted Kerry telling Chinese President Xi Jinping on Saturday.

Meanwhile, conflicting accounts from U.S. intelligence about the status of North Korea’s nuclear weapons program underscore just how difficult it is for American spy agencies to penetrate the inscrutable regime in Pyongyang, AFP reported officials and experts as saying.

The world’s most powerful intelligence apparatus is often left to guesswork when it comes to tracking a regime that has cut off its population from the outside world.

“I also have to say that North Korea, of course, is now and always has been one of the, if not the, toughest intelligence targets,” National Intelligence Director James Clapper told lawmakers at a hearing Thursday.

The spy chief acknowledged that North Korea’s young, untested leader Kim Jong-Un remained a mystery figure whose motives and mindset were largely unknown.

“There’s no telling how he’s going to behave,” Clapper said.

The United States gleans most of its intelligence from satellites tracking North Korean military movements, as Western spies cannot effectively operate in such a tightly-controlled dictatorship.

“It is virtually impossible to run a human spy in the north and penetrate the Korean state,” Bruce Riedel, a former CIA officer and fellow at the Brookings Institution, told AFP.

The vexing challenge posed by North Korea was driven home when a Defense Intelligence Agency report came to light Thursday that seemed to paint a more dangerous picture of the country’s nuclear weapons, unlike previous accounts from U.S. officials.

Iran suggests Cairo for nuclear talks with powers

Wednesday, January 23rd, 2013

Wednesday, 23 January 2013

Iran's Foreign Minister said that  the next round of nuclear talks should take place in Cairo. (Reuters)

Iran’s Foreign Minister said that the next round of nuclear talks should take place in Cairo. (Reuters)

By REUTERS 
DUBAI

Iran has suggested that the next round of nuclear talks with world powers should take place in Cairo, the ISNA news agency reported on Wednesday, citing the Islamic state’s foreign minister.

“When I was in Egypt … it was suggested that the next meeting be held in Cairo,” Iranian Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Salehi was quoted as saying by ISNA on Wednesday. “This issue was welcomed by our dear friends in Egypt and Egypt will consult with the P5+1 for hosting this meeting.”

The last round of negotiations between Iran and six world powers, known collectively as the P5+1, over Tehran’s disputed nuclear program was held in June 2012 in Moscow. Iranian media last week cited Geneva, Istanbul and “some other cities” as possible locations for talks.

Iran and P5+1 – the United States, Britain, France, Germany, China and Russia – say they want to resume talks.

However, the two sides’ priorities diverge: the powers want to curb Iran’s work to potentially develop atomic weapons, while Iran wants sanctions scrapped and their “rights” to enrich uranium formally recognized.

Three rounds of negotiations in 2012 failed to achieve a breakthrough in the decade-old dispute, which has the potential to trigger a new Middle East war. Iran denies it is pursuing weapons and says its program is purely peaceful.

China Signs Steel Deal in Iran

Wednesday, January 16th, 2013

Timesofnews.co

01/16/2013

BY CHUIN-WEI YAP

BEIJING—A large Chinese state-owned company said it signed a $712 million dollar contract to help build a steel plant in Iran, signaling that Beijing isn’t ready to join Western nations in increasing pressure on Tehran over its nuclear program.

A unit of state-owned metals giant China Nonferrous Metal Mining Group said in a statement Wednesday it will provide engineering design, equipment supply and installation, construction and training services for the Iran Butia steel plant.

China has consistently defended its economic ties with Iran, which is under U.S. and European Union sanctions for its alleged nuclear weapons program.

Ahead of Chuck Hagel, John Brennan nominations, intel official in Cairo

Monday, January 7th, 2013

DEBKAfile Special Report January 7, 2013

Chuck Hagel nominated US Defense Secretary
Chuck Hagel nominated US Defense Secretary

As Washington prepared for new appointments to the Obama cabinet, the US president dispatched US Undersecretary for Defense Intelligence Michael Vickers to Cairo Sunday, Jan. 12 on a two-day mission to try and revitalize the counter-terror war on two key fronts: post-Qaddafi Libya and Egyptian Sinai. DEBKAfile’s Washington sources report that President Barack Obama hastened to address these fronts, because he expected the five-month old murder of US Ambassador Christ Stevens in Benghazi by al Qaeda to come up at congressional hearings and hamper the endorsement of ex-Senator Chuck Hagel as defense secretary and John Brennan as Central Intelligence Director. Their appointments were to be announced Monday, Jan. 7.

Hagel faced a preliminary storm over his attitudes on Israel and Iran, whereas Brennan, as counterterrorism adviser to the president, has been responsible for shaping administration policy in this sphere in Libya, Egypt and the Sinai Peninsula.

The United States has still not taken steps against the Libyan Ansar al-Sharia group, which assassinated the ambassador and three US staffers on Sept. 11. 2012, and numbered Egyptian al Qaeda jihadis who came in from Cairo.

This cross-alliance still functions with impunity as the Libyan group enforces its control over large areas of Benghazi and eastern Libya, funded by the smuggling of arms from Libya and pumping them into the big smuggling pipelines running through Sinai via Egypt.

Jihadist terror is also rampant in Sinai.  On Nov. 21, President Obama, in a phone call to Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu, pledged the immediate deployment of US troops for leading a comprehensive Egyptian campaign against the al Qaeda and Salafist Bedouin extremists who have settled in northern and central Sinai after driving the Egyptian administration out. This pledge was part of the ceasefire deal which ended Israel’s Gaza Strip operation. But so far, according to our military and counterterrorism sources, very little has been done except for a visit to Sinai by a small study group of American officers and servicemen.

The delay is accounted for mainly by the weighty challenges confronting Egyptian President Mohamed Mors in the last couple of months. Morso is practically the only office-holder in Cairo ready to endorse an covert military US operation in Sinai for eradicating the terrorist bane. Egyptian Defense Minister Gen. Abdel-Fattah Al-Sissi was his only ally, but in recent weeks the Egyptian army has come out against an anti-al Qaeda expedition in Sinai.

The security situation there is constantly deteriorating as Egypt struggles to retain some grip on the territory. In mid-December, the defense minister in Cairo quietly issued an order, with made hardly a ripple outside Egypt, “restricting the right to buy property in Sinai to second-generation Egyptian citizens.”

This prohibition was made necessary, our sources disclose, by the land grab in force by partnerships of Persian Gulf tycoons, mainly Qatar, and Gazan Palestinian, mostly Hamas adherents. They were quietly snapping up choice coastal strips of Sinai to gain control of the peninsula’s Mediterranean and Gulf of Aqaba shores, as well as the western and eastern regions.

The Egyptian military passed the new law to save the territory from slipping out of its hands to Palestinian Hamas and Gulf oil interests.  Hamas is also believed to be in cahoots with allies in the armed terrorist groups of Libya and Sinai.

Delayed American action in Sinai has produced three results:

1.  The Sinai arms smuggling route (which also serves Iran) is thriving as never before. The expanded earnings of Ansar al-Sharia are bolstering its grip on power in Libya;

2.  Sinai has been allowed to evolve into al Qaeda’s primary operational-logistical hub for Africa and the Middle East, its jumping-off base for action in Libya, Egypt, Sudan, Somalia, Saudi Arabia and Yemen;

3.  In the absence of any resistance, al Qaeda is bringing its positions close to the Israeli border. All Egyptian military efforts to curtail the terrorist creep into the northern Sinai towns of El Arish and Rafah have had no effect.

Sunday, Jan. 6, a band of Salafist Bedouin came up to a parked car on the El Arish main street and shot the driver dead. DEBKAfile reports that the victim, one of the top men in Egypt’s counter-terror campaign in northern Sinai, was on a surveillance mission in civilian dress. The terrorists knew who he was – indicating they have established a clandestine presence inside Egypt’s security services.

Iran warns of cancelling $5 bn China gas deal: media

Monday, December 24th, 2012

24 DECEMBER 2012

View of phases 3 and 4 of the South Pars gas field in the southern Iranian port of Assaluyeh on January 27, 2011. Iran has warned China it could cancel a much-delayed $5-billion offshore gas exploration contract in the Gulf, a news agency said on Monday.

View of phases 3 and 4 of the South Pars gas field in the southern Iranian port of Assaluyeh on January 27, 2011. Iran has warned China it could cancel a much-delayed $5-billion offshore gas exploration contract in the Gulf, a news agency said on Monday.

AFPIran has warned China it could cancel a much-delayed $5-billion offshore gas exploration contract in the Gulf, a news agency said on Monday.

“There is a possibility of cancelling the contract” signed in 2009 to develop the South Pars gas field — which holds around eight percent of the world’s gas reserves — Mehr news quoted oil ministry spokesman Alireza Nikzad as saying.

China has for years aimed to strengthen its economic relationship with sanctions-hit Iran, by filling the investment void left by departing Western companies.

But Iran has accused China of failing to fulfil its commitment and delaying its contractual obligations.

South Pars, a huge offshore natural gas field shared between Iran and Qatar, holds around 14 trillion cubic metres of gas, and Iran plans to use the “phase 11″ project to fill its first-everliquefied natural gas plant.

Mehr named China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC), the Asian giant’s largest oil and gas producer and supplier, as the company contracted for the project.

Iran suspended a $16-billion contract with China last year for the North Pars gas field, saying the decision to let the Chinese develop North Pars rested on their effectiveness in developing South Pars.

Nikzad said that should the South Pars contract be cancelled, the development of the offshore gas field would be handed over to Iranian contractors.

“The Chinese side has stated it is not inclined to be part of the project’s development,” citing the “high risk” involved in offshore exploration, Nikzad added.

He said that a deal for another gas field would instead be discussed “in the near future,” without giving any details.

Major Western companies that had been operating in South Pars, among them France’s Total and Anglo-Dutch giant Shell, withdrew from Iran between 2007 and 2010 after international sanctions were imposed over Tehran’s controversial nuclear programme.

Iran, which has the world’s second-largest natural gas reserves after Russia, claims it is able to develop South Pars on its own by giving many of the projects to companies affiliated to its elite Revolutionary Guards.

Will the U.S. abandon the Middle East?

Thursday, December 6th, 2012

Alarabiya

By NASER AL-TAMIMI

Thursday, 06 December 2012

Naser Al-Tamimi

The World energy map will change in the next decade for ever. Fatih Birol, the Chief Economist at the International Energy Agency calls the surge of U.S. oil and gas production “the biggest change in the energy world since World War II.” The well known American expert Amy Myers Jaffe goes further to say that, by the 2020s, the capital of energy will likely have shifted back to the Western Hemisphere.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) in its annual report World Energy Outlook 2012 projects that the U.S. will overtake Russia as the world’s top gas producer by 2015 and will pass Saudi Arabia as the No. 1 global oil producer by 2017. By 2035 the U.S. is likely to be energy self-sufficient and an exporter of oil and liquefied natural gas. The IEA notes that unconventional oil which is primarily located in Americas stands at 3.19 trillion, exceeding Middle East dominated conventional oil of 2.67 trillion. Consequently; if these vast resources were extracted in a viable manner economically and environmentally, the additional supplies will certainly strengthens the position of oil-consuming countries and lower the concentration of energy resources in the Middle East and the influence of OPEC on the world oil markets. The United States will have much greater ability to make up for any import disruption through the country’s strategic reserves of oil.

With its own domestic energy production potentially freeing the United States from dependence on Middle East oil, some are beginning to ask whether the world’s pre-eminent superpower should bear the cost of policing the Gulf. The IEA report World Energy Outlook 2012 hinted, it is arguable that future American military interventions in the Gulf region would be less likely. As Javier Solana, former Secretary-General of Nato and EU High Representative for the Common Foreign and Security Policy puts it recently: “For the U.S., energy self-sufficiency is the perfect excuse for a phased withdrawal from the Middle East; freed from energy dependency, America should be able to concentrate on the Pacific.”

Indeed, the American public could question the old mantra that “any threat to Middle East oil supplies correlated to a direct threat to American national security”. The longstanding legacy of the “Carter Doctrine” could gradually become a thing of the past, or at least become less strategically significant to the United States. Over time, U.S. taxpayers will question why they are paying for the Fifth Fleet to do the job. Why on earth, many Americans are asking, should the United States try to police a region, when all it gets in return is mindless abuse and violence? In that regard, the Obama administration’s “pivot” to Asia has already been taking shape for at least two years. As Tom Donilon, the White House national security adviser argues lately: “The US is a Pacific power whose interests are inextricably linked with Asia’s economic, security and political order (…) America’s success in the 21st century is tied to the success of Asia”. Maybe these developments what made Yoel Guzansky the research fellow at the Institute for National Security Studies at Tel Aviv University to write recently in Haaretz, “An American presence in the region is an Israeli interest of the first degree, and we must do everything in our power to maintain it”.

In reality, however, it is not that simple. David Goldwyn, a former U.S. State Department special envoy for international energy, wrote in the New York Times that “the U.S. suddenly having a great wealth of domestically produced gas and, increasingly, oil, the argument follows, will allow the United States to look inward and take less interest in international affairs, including Middle East (…) this is unlikely to happen”. Indeed, the United States engagement in the Middle East is not simply about oil imports. Everyone knows America hasn’t needed Middle East oil for years. U.S. President Barack Obama always mentioned what he called four “core interests” in the region. (a) “Countering terrorism”, (b) “Stopping the spread of nuclear weapons”, (c) “Securing the free flow of commerce”, and, (d) “Standing up for Israel’s security and pursuing Arab Israeli peace”.

Furthermore, the United States would still need to worry about the Middle East since oil prices are set globally. In the U.S. Department of Energy’s reference case for 2035, total U.S. consumption of petroleum and other liquids, including both fossil fuels and bio-fuels, rises from 19.2 million barrels per day in 2010 to 19.9 million barrels per day in 2035 in the Reference case. The net import share of domestic consumption, which reached 60 percent in 2005 and 2006 before falling to 49 percent in 2010, continues falling in the Reference case to 36 percent in 2035. The bottom line: U.S. oil prices still depend on what happens abroad not the source or quantity of U.S. imports. The IEA warned that a fall in oil imports would not insulate the U.S. from developments in international markets or end its vulnerability to price spikes. The World Energy Outlook 2012 stated clearly that: “No country is energy -Island- and the interactions between different fuels, markets and prices are intensifying. Most oil consumers are used to the effects of worldwide fluctuations in price but consumers can expect to see growing linkages in other areas”.

Above all, at the strategic level, if Washington wants to remain central to Asia the U.S. administration always argues, there is no getting around the reality of Asian reliance on Gulf oil. As the Financial Times noted “The pivot to Asia does not pull America away from the Gulf. It takes it back by a different route”. Within this context, the Economist summaries the situation in a very interesting words: The Middle East is still the crucible of Islam: so much that affects American diplomacy around the rest of the world, from Pakistan to Indonesia, Nigeria, and even the suburbs of Paris, has its starting point here. It is the world’s energy centre: the Middle East still sets the price at America’s petrol stations. And the region is home to many of America’s most committed enemies, including Iran”. Most Americans may wish to keep out of the Middle East quagmire, unfortunately for them; the region will always re-play the proverb “if you can’t live with us, you can’t escape from us.”

(Naser AL-Tamimi is a UK-based Middle East analyst with particular research interest in energy politics and political economy of Saudi Arabia, the Gulf and Middle East- Asia relations.)

4 Charged in NY Iran-China Weapons Shipment Scheme

Thursday, December 6th, 2012

ABC News

By By LARRY NEUMEISTER Associated Press
NEW YORK December 6, 2012 (AP)

Four men have been charged with arranging shipments to China and Iran of weapons materials or a substance that can be used in uranium enrichment, officials announced Wednesday after indictments containing the charges were unsealed.

Three of the men have been arrested while the fourth is in being sought to face charges described in court papers in U.S. District Court in Manhattan.

Those charges include allegations that they broke embargo and export laws, with two of them accused of arranging to send a shipment of carbon fiber to Iran, where U.S. Attorney Preet Bharara said it “most assuredly had the potential to end up in the wrong hands.” Authorities said carbon fiber can be used in gas centrifuges that enrich uranium and in military aircraft and strategic missiles.

“Whether motivated by greed or otherwise, these defendants allegedly violated the law, including by arranging for the export of carbon fiber that can be used in uranium enrichment,” said George Venizelos, head of the New York FBI office.

James T. Hayes Jr., head of Homeland Security Investigations at the New York office of U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement, said the arrests occurred as part of a daily “cat-and-mouse game with individuals who will go to great lengths to circumvent U.S. Customs law to export sensitive military grade technology to countries like Iran and China.”

“If in the wrong hands,” he said, “carbon fiber can be used to manufacture dangerous products that threaten our national security and the security of other nations.”

In court papers, the government said Hamid Reza Hashemi since 2007 had successfully arranged for the shipment of carbon fiber, including from the United States, to his company in Tehran. The dual U.S. and Iranian citizen, who lives in Iran, was arrested at John F. Kennedy International Airport as he entered the United States on Saturday.

Peter Gromacki, a U.S. citizen who lived and worked in Orange County, was arrested Wednesday and charged with arranging the export of more than 6,000 pounds of carbon fiber from the U.S. to Belgium for shipment to China. Authorities said he made false statements about where the shipments were headed.

Amir Abbas Tamimi, an Iranian citizen and a resident of Iran who was arrested at Kennedy airport as he entered the country on Oct. 5, was accused of attempting to arrange since November 2011 for the export from the U.S. to Iran of helicopter parts that can be used for military purposes, including reconnaissance and as missile platforms.

Murat Taskiran, a Turkish citizen accused in the plot to ship carbon fiber from the U.S. to Iran, remains a fugitive.

Hashemi and Tamimi were detained after court appearances while Gromacki was freed on $400,000 bail after an arraignment in federal court in White Plains.

Messages left with lawyers for the three arrested men on Wednesday were not immediately returned.

Iran to China Threaten Obama’s Second-Term Promises

Thursday, November 8th, 2012

Bloomberg News

By Indira A.R. Lakshmanan on November 08, 2012

After a presidential campaign waged on the domestic terrain of jobs and economic growth, President Barack Obama is confronted by a volatile international environment that will help determine whether he can keep his promise to restore America’s prosperity.

Israel is threatening to attack Iran’s nuclear facilities, a move that would roil oil markets and draw U.S. military support for the Jewish state. The promise of the Arab Spring has given way to concerns about the future of the new democracies, and Islamic extremists threaten Afghanistan, Pakistan, Yemen and a swath of North Africa.

China, the largest holder of U.S. debt, is undergoing a generational change in leadership and flexing its muscles toward its neighbors. Despite Obama’s first-term effort to improve ties with Russia, the relationship remains prickly. While the U.S. economy is recovering slowly, America’s European allies are mired in a financial crisis that threatens the global economy.

“The world has become a global market where bad debt, higher oil prices and defaulting economies travel far, fast and wide,” said Aaron David Miller, an analyst at the Woodrow Wilson Center for International Scholars in Washington. “The problem is that a president has very little control over those factors,” even though he must mitigate their effects.

Obama will confront diverse security challenges with a shrinking defense budget that will force choices among costly weapons systems that create jobs and boost local economies, but may not be as well-suited to 21st Century warfare as less expensive cyber weapons and special operations forces.

New Dangers

There are new dangers, too, from the effects of climate change to cyberattacks by foreign intelligence agencies, independent hackers and criminal groups.

Many of the U.S. economic crises over the last century were brought on wholly or in part by conflicts with adversaries abroad, said Michael O’Hanlon, a national security specialist at the Brookings Institution, a Washington policy center.

From the 1930 Smoot-Hawley tariffs that helped deepen the Great Depression to the oil embargo that accompanied the 1973 Arab-Israeli War to the last decade’s wars in Iraq and Afghanistan that added a couple trillion dollars to the federal deficit, history shows that foreign policy can’t be an afterthought, O’Hanlon said.

Obama will handle the international issues with a revamped national security team including a new secretary of state and perhaps defense secretary. Susan Rice, the U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, is emerging as the favored candidate to succeed Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, according to six current or former White House official who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss internal deliberations.

Here are some of the major national security issues that continue to percolate as Obama savors his election win:

Defense Spending

One of Obama’s most immediate tasks will be to avert automatic spending cuts that will take effect Jan. 2 if the lame-duck Congress and the president can’t agree on a plan to rein in the federal deficit or buy more time to do so.

The Budget Control Act of 2011 shrinks the Pentagon budget in two phases — $487 billion through 2021 and an additional $500 billion unless action is taken to avert the across-the- board cuts known as sequestration. Non-defense “discretionary” spending, including foreign aid, would be cut by 8.2 percent.

The defense industry has said sequestration would cost tens of thousands of jobs, and Defense Secretary Leon Panetta has said it would be “devastating” to the military.

At the same time, a rising China and an intransigent Iran underscore a need to add to the Navy’s nine available aircraft carrier strike groups, said John Nagl, a research fellow at the U.S. Naval Academy in Annapolis, Maryland.

Iran, Syria

One of the highest-stakes diplomatic challenges will be convincing Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei to abandon his nation’s suspected pursuit of nuclear weapons. If economic sanctions and diplomacy fail to produce results by sometime next year, the president may be forced to risk a war with Iran.

Kenneth Katzman, a Mideast specialist at the nonpartisan Congressional Research Service, said more economic sanctions are the likely next step, along with repeated pledges to use force if necessary. The president also must make clear that if Iran compromises, the sanctions that have hobbled its trade and tanked its currency will be lifted, he said.

The president also will be under growing pressure to intervene in the bloody civil war in Syria, an Iranian ally, which is destabilizing neighboring Lebanon, threatening Turkey and Jordan and attracting a new generation of radical Islamists.

Al-Qaeda’s ‘Franchise’

Syria isn’t the only battleground for the evolving terror threat. While al-Qaeda has been battered in Afghanistan and Pakistan, it has metastasized into an “amorphous movement” whose affiliates in numerous countries could “plot acts of terrorism against the U.S. homeland,” Katzman said in an interview.

Jeffrey Dressler, an analyst at the Institute for the Study of War, a Washington policy group, said extremists have increased their presence in Egypt, Libya, Algeria, Mali, Yemen and Somalia. The al-Qaeda “global franchise,” he said, “is going to pose even more significant challenges in five or 10 years.”

To slow extremism’s progress, the president will have to do more than use drone strikes and special operations forces, Dressler said. Shrinking budgets notwithstanding, the administration will need to target the poverty and official corruption that allow militant Islam to flourish, he said.

Changing Egypt

Obama faces unfamiliar terrain in the Middle East as the protest movements that swept the region continue to alter internal politics and foreign relations.

The long U.S. alliance with Egypt will be reshaped, said Jon Alterman, director of the Middle East program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington policy group. What comes next under the Muslim Brotherhood government is critical to preserving Egypt’s peace accord with Israel and to maintaining priority access for the U.S. military through the Suez Canal.

The moribund Palestinian-Israeli peace process may be unlikely to draw much attention from the White House. If Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is able to form a new government in early 2013, U.S.-Israeli ties may continue to be strained by the tension in his relationship with Obama.

In the near-term, Obama will have to manage the drawdown of U.S. combat forces from Afghanistan he’s promised by the end of 2014 without abandoning the Afghan government or letting insurgents reverse fragile gains. He probably will seek to keep 10,000 to 15,000 non-combat forces in the country to support counter-terrorism operations and train and advise Afghan forces, Nagl said.

China Challenges

Elsewhere in Asia, the president faces economic, diplomatic and strategic challenges from China, where he’ll need to engage new leaders and soothe ill feelings from the anti-China rhetoric of the presidential campaign. While China is America’s second- largest trading partner, the two nations have been embroiled since 2009 in disputes over autos, rare-earth minerals, steel, tires, chicken parts, electronic-payment services, government support for clean energy and other issues.

Trade Deficit

The U.S. goods trade deficit with China reached a record $295.4 billion last year, and the Obama administration has said the Chinese yuan is undervalued at the expense of U.S. exports. How much pressure the U.S. can exert may be limited by China’s status as the top U.S. creditor.

China had made clear “the ball is in the U.S. court” to restore a “positive and cooperative” tone, said Chris Johnson, a China specialist and former CIA analyst at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington.

Across Asia, the administration needs to impress on China, Japan and others the importance of peacefully resolving island claims in the energy-rich East and South China Seas, analysts said. Obama will have to try to get them to resolve their differences “without wading into the very nasty waters of all these territorial disputes,” said Michael Kugelman, an Asia analyst at the Wilson Center.

As the euro crisis enters its fourth year, it remains an unpredictable threat to the global economy and a constraint on the U.S.’s traditional allies. Belt-tightening coupled with war fatigue after military actions in Iraq, Afghanistan and Libya means there’s scant appetite in Europe for interventions to stabilize nations such as Somalia and Mali.

Iran seeking China funding to complete metro project

Monday, October 15th, 2012

By Stanley Carvalho

ABU DHABI | Mon Oct 15, 2012 8:41am EDT

(Reuters) – Iran is hopeful its ally China will fund up to $2 billion to complete Tehran’s metro rail which faces delays due to lack of financing as a result of sanctions, a government official said on Monday.

Phase two of the metro is on track for completion next year but two new lines under the third phase may be delayed due to lack of money, Mohammad Montazeri, deputy managing director, planning & logistics, Tehran Urban & Suburban Railway Co said.

“We are seeing funds from foreign companies. We are in negotiations with China (government, banks and agencies), we are hoping to get financing,” he told Reuters on the sidelines of the Middle East Economic Digest’s Rail Projects conference.

“If the loans come we can finish on time,” he said.

The United States and its allies accuse Iran of using its atomic program as a cover to develop nuclear weapons and have imposed increasingly stringent economic sanctions to try to force Iran to answer questions about the program. Iran has said its program is for solely peaceful purposes, not for weapons.

Tehran initially planned to build 430 kilometers of metro lines with 256 stations at a cost of $18 billion. But as sanctions began to bite, only 261 kilometers and 175 stations were approved, estimated to cost around $10 billion, he told the conference earlier.

The 89-km, 41 stations phase one is operational and the 70-km, 66 stations phase two is scheduled for completion in 2013. The third phase of two lines, about 102 km and 68 stations is due to be completed by 2015, if financing is secured.

By the end of this year, five lines covering 147 km and 88 stations will be operational, he said.

Foreign loans which accounted for 43 percent of the approximately $10 billion (for all three phases) metro cost from 1987 to 1997 fell to 10 percent during 1997 to 2005. At the end of last year, foreign loans dried up completely, he said.

“Now, 50 percent of the funding is from the private sector and the rest from the government,” Montazeri said.

The impact of sanctions is less severe on equipment as 80 percent of Iran’s requirements such as wagons, machinery and other products are produced locally.

“Only for about 20 percent we may feel the impact but that is not economically viable for us to produce in Iran,” he said, adding some goods such as rail tracks are imported from China, without giving details.

Despite sanctions, Iran has managed to import banned goods from some countries in return for oil shipments.

“Foreign investment is the main problem,” he said, adding the company receives over 70 percent subsidy from the government.

With a population of 8 million in Tehran, at least 15 million journeys are made on the metro daily, he said.

(Reporting By Stanley Carvalho, editing by Ron Askew)

Chinese Foreign Minister Says Iran Issue Entering A ‘New Stage’

Friday, September 28th, 2012

September 28, 2012

NEW YORK — Chinese Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi says the Iran nuclear crisis has entered “a new stage” as Israel has called for a “red line” to prevent the Islamic republic from acquiring a nuclear bomb.

Addressing the UN General Assembly on in New York on September 27, the Chinese foreign minister called on all parties “to intensify their diplomatic efforts, maintain and promote talks, stabilize the situation, and gradually seek a comprehensive, long-term and proper resolution.”

He also said that Beijing is willing to maintain communication and strengthen cooperation with the other parties to play a constructive role in promoting talks.”

Netanyahu warns: Iran nuclear bomb capability in 6-7 months

Sunday, September 16th, 2012

By REUTERS, JPOST.COM STAFF

09/16/2012 16:36

In “Meet the Press” interview preview, Netanyahu reiterates need for “red lines” for Tehran, questions rationality of Iranian regime, takes a stand against containment.

PM Netanyahu on "Meet the Press"

PHOTO: SCREENSHOT

Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu warned on Sunday that Iran would be on the brink of nuclear weapons capability in six to seven months, adding new urgency to his demand that President Barack Obama set a clear “red line” for Tehran in what could deepen the worst US-Israeli rift in decades.

Taking his case to the American public, Netanyahu said in US television interviews that by mid-2013, Iran would be 90 percent of the way toward enough enriched uranium for a bomb. He urged the United States to spell out limits that Tehran must not cross or else face military action – something Obama has refused to do.

“You have to place that red line before them now, before it’s too late,” Netanyahu told NBC’s “Meet the Press” program, saying that such a US move could reduce the chances of having to attack Iran’s nuclear sites.

The unusually public dispute – coupled with Obama’s decision not to meet with Netanyahu later this month – has exposed a deep US-Israeli divide and stepped up pressure on the US leader in the final stretch of a tight presidential election campaign.

Netanyahu also said that Iran’s leaders are guided by “unbelievable fanaticism” and warned American policymakers that containment will not work against a nuclear Iran.

“I wouldn’t rely on their rationality,” he stated.

“Since the advent of nuclear weapons, you have countries that had access to nuclear weapons who always made a careful calculation of cost and benefit,” he said.

“Iran has a very different zealotry about their survival, there are suicide bombers all over the place,” Netanyahu continued.

“It’s the same fanaticism that you see storming your embassies today,” Netanyahu added, in an apparent reference to the wave of violent protests at American embassies in the Muslim world. “You want these fanatics to have nuclear weapons?”

He went on to comment that if anyone thought Iran having nuclear capability would work to stabilize the Middle East, that they would set a “new standard for human stupidity.” Netanyahu’s comments come in the wake of reported friction between the US and Israel over Iran.

US President Barack Obama told 1,200 American rabbis Friday via a conference call that he was not willing to imposea “set of conditions” on how he would handle Iran – according to participants on the call.

On Friday, Iranian President Ahmadinejad also commented upon the US-Israel relationship, stating that US decision-makers have already come to the understanding that the Zionist regime is “no longer beneficial to them.”

He added that the Zionists are seeking new ways to “disturb the game,” Iranian state-run Fars News Agency reported.

Russia, China offer alternative to sanctions on Iran

Thursday, September 13th, 2012

RadioZamaneh

Thu, 09/13/2012
Sergey Lavrov

Russia has once again rejected severe sanctions on Iran, offering instead a joint resolution with China that the International Atomic Energy Agency can consider for approval.

Ria Novosti reports that Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said in Astaneh, the Kazakhstan capital: “Our Western partners had proposed a severe set of sanctions for Iran at this meeting, but we firmly opposed it together with the Chinese delegations.”

He added that the proposal by Western countries will not lead to any progress in nuclear negotiations with Iran.

Lavrov stressed that the resolution proposed by Russia and China will give the agency an opportunity to work toward resolving Iran’s nuclear issues through negotiations.

The resolution, according to Lavrov, has been handed to the board of governors of the IAEA, and he expressed every hope that it would be passed unanimously.

Lavrov emphasized that Western countries’ harsh moves against Iran are ”unacceptable and not constructive.”

Russia and China have been very critical of the unilateral sanctions imposed on Iran in the past year by the United States and the European Union.

Russia has said that such sanctions are aimed at a regime change rather than a peaceful resolution to the nuclear disputes with Iran.

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